Общий государственный долг Пакистана вырос до 74 триллионов рупий к концу декабря, увеличившись на 3,9 процента по сравнению с концом июня 2024 года, когда он составлял 71,246 триллиона рупий.

«Основными причинами, которые обычно способствуют изменению объема долга, являются бюджетный дефицит, обменный курс и колебания остатков денежных средств, поддерживаемых центральным банком», — говорится в последнем отчете Министерства финансов «Полугодовой бюллетень государственного долга» (июль-декабрь 2024 года). Тенденция за последние два финансовых года (ФГ-23 и ФГ-24) показывает, что правительство смогло создать значительный федеральный первичный профицит, который увеличился с 1,5 трлн пакистанских рупий в первом полугодии 24 финансового года до 2,8 трлн пакистанских рупий в первом полугодии 2025 года. Процентные расходы также увеличились на 18% с 4,2 трлн пакистанских рупий до 5,1 трлн пакистанских рупий. Тем не менее, увеличение объема долга в первой половине текущего финансового года (FY-25) было ниже по сравнению с 1H-24, в основном из-за более высокого первичного профицита.

Разбивка на 74 трлн рупий показала, что внутренний долг составил 49,88 трлн рупий, а внешний долг - 24,1 трлн рупий. Общий долг правительства составил 67,034 трлн рупий. Внутренний долг является основным источником финансирования бюджетного дефицита. По состоянию на 24 декабря он составлял 67% от общего долга. Процентные расходы составили около 5,1 трлн пакистанских рупий, из которых 90% пришлось на внутренний долг. Благодаря мерам по рационализации расходов, правительство достигло первичного федерального профицита в размере 2,8 трлн пакистанских рупий в течение 1 полугодия 25 года, что привело к дефициту федерального бюджета в размере 2,3 трлн пакистанских рупий.

The external public debt of Pakistan stood at US$ 86.6 billion as of December 2024, reflecting a 1.3% decline compared to December 2023. This reduction was primarily due to major repayments to bilateral creditors. Additionally, there was a notable surge in foreign investment in Pakistan's domestic debt securities, with non-resident holdings of government debt securities rising to $782 million in December 2024, compared to just $4 million in December 2023. This increase was driven by economic stabilization and a stable exchange rate, making Pakistan's domestic debt securities an attractive investment option. The composition of external debt reveals a predominant reliance on long-term, concessional financing from multilateral sources.

Loans from multilateral (including IMF) and bilateral development partners constitute 56 percent and 27 percent respectively. Loan from multilateral stood at $48.5 billion. In multilateral, Pakistan borrowed $20.6 billion from World Bank, $15.9 billion from Asian Development Bank, $8.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $3.5 billion from others. Bilateral deposits (China and Saudi Arabia) account for 10 percent. These loans are short-term in nature (1-year) and are obtained mostly for budgetary support. In bilateral, the country has borrowed $5.7 billion from Paris club and $17.9 billion from non-Paris club.

The loans from foreign commercial banks constitute around 7 percent. These loans are mostly short to medium term (i.e., 1-3 years) with market-based interest rate. Government of Pakistan's international capital market transactions in the form of Eurobonds and international sukuk constitute 8 percent. These transactions represent the long-term nature of debt with market-based interest rates. Other foreign inflows in terms of Naya Pakistan Certificates, non-resident investment in government securities, and Pakistan Banao Certificates etc. constitute around 2 percent.

External budgetary disbursements were recorded as US$ 3.5 billion, of which US$ 1.8 billion was received from multilateral sources, US$ 0.5 billion from Commercial sources, US$ 0.24 billion from Bilateral development partners, and US$ 0.93 billion was recorded as inflow from Naya Pakistan Certificates.

External budgetary repayment during the first half of fiscal year amounted to US$ 4.268 billion. Government repaid international commercial bank loans and bilateral loans to the tune of US$ 1.661 billion and multilateral loans amounting to US$ 1.094 billion during H1 FY-25. US$ 1.0 billion China SAFE deposits and US$ 3.0 billion Saudi deposits were rolled over for one year in July 2024 and December 2024, respectively. Pakistan received the first tranche of USD 1.02 billion under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility Programme amounting to USD 7 billion. Unlike FY-24, where net external flows contributed PKR 321 billion to deficit financing, 1H FY25 saw a net outflow of PKR 78.7 billion. 

The FY-24 saw improvement in the major macro-economic indicators, as the government's reforms led stabilization policies resulted in modest growth in GDP, declining inflation, a primary fiscal surplus, reduced current account deficit, and a stable exchange rate. This momentum continued during 1HFY-25, as demonstrated by the improved fiscal situation. A primary surplus (consolidated basis) of PKR 3,604 billion (2.9% of GDP) was recorded, compared to primary surplus of PKR 1,812 billion in FY-23 (1.7% of GDP) in same period last year. The fiscal deficit declined to 1.2% of GDP in 1HFY-25 as compared to 2.3% of GDP in 1HFY-24. Inflation for Dec-2024 clocked in at 4.1%, marking the lowest CPI reading in over 6.5 years. The average inflation rate for 1HFY25 is 7.2%, a notable reduction compared to the 28.8% average recorded in 1HFY24. The external account position has significantly improved, driven by increases in exports and remittances despite a rise in imports. Pakistan's current account (CA) balance posted another surplus in Dec-2024 of US$582 million, taking 1HFY25 CA balance to US$ 1,210 million, primarily driven by higher remittances and controlled trade deficit. SBP reserves also increased from US$9.4 billion (Jun-24) to US$11.7 billion.

The Nation UAE